News updates June 23, 24, 2022

1.BTC Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Will Not Grow Above $30,000 Soon. The previous trading week on the Bitcoin market realized the dreams of many investors who were waiting for BTC for $20,000. However, sellers managed to exceed expectations, setting the local low at $17,622. Fortunately, the weekly candle closed above the liquidity range of $18,000-$20,000, and buyers have every chance to start correcting the powerful fall wave. There are now two strong liquidity levels in the market, between which the BTC price may hang for some time before the trend begins. This is in the range of $20,000 and $30,000. In such a wide range, the BTC price can be traded even until the end of autumn 2022. Therefore, until the BTC price is fixed above $30,000 or sellers push the price below $20,000, planning sky-high trend targets does not make sense. The trading volumes during the weekly candle of 13 June show us the tremendous efforts of sellers who were spent to achieve the result. So the maximum we expect from sellers in the coming weeks is an attempt to test the $19,000 range. This attempt will finally pass the initiative into the hands of buyers and we will witness the formation of a rebound of Bitcoin with the final target of $30,000.
BTC Technical Analysis On The Daily Timeframe. 

Analyzing the movement of the BTC price on the daily timeframe, you can see that things are not very good for buyers. After the depletion of sellers and the final daily candle on the BTC fall on 18 June, buyers began a dubious rebound. The Bitcoin price is slowly growing, and the volumes for the rebound are high. This fact means that many sellers are still concentrated in the market. And every local increase of the BTC price is an opportunity for sellers to sell Bitcoin by entering a short position.
Given this fact, the probability of a $19,000 test from the current price is quite high. Keeping the mark of $19,000 will catch sellers by surprise and a new BTC growth wave will begin with the operation of stop orders of sellers at market prices. Thus, until the BTC price has checked the mark of $19,000 for strength, we do not recommend investing in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Dominance Is Falling And Has Great Prospects For Continued Fall.

Falling Bitcoin dominance does not mean that the BTC price will also fall. This figure captures the interest of buyers in Bitcoin at the moment. Falling dominance means the flow of capital into stablecoins and altcoins. If the cryptocurrency market starts to grow, while Bitcoin dominance will fall, we will see aggressive growth of altcoins and weak Bitcoin growth. Therefore, in the near future, it is worth thinking about investing in altcoins, while the prospect of BTC's falling dominance will remain great.

2. Bitcoin Forecast Increased to $95,000 by End of 2023, Says Analyst; Here's Why

Mark Palmer, an analyst at BTIG, forecasts that Bitcoin might more than quadruple from its current level to reach $95,000 by 2023. Although MicroStrategy Inc. shares have taken a beating this year, analysts continue to be upbeat. Palmer sets a share-price target of $950 for MSTR stock, more than five times MicroStrategy's closing price of $170.

In an interview with The Guardian, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said that Bitcoin may hit its all-time high of close to $70,000 within a few months to two years.

Zhao stated, "I think given this price drop, from the all-time high of 68k to 20k now, it will probably take a while to get back." He said, "It probably will take a few months or a couple of years," adding that "no one can predict the future."

 *Bitcoin ''technically oversold''*

Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge, said on Thursday at the Collision conference in Toronto that given Bitcoin's (BTC) expanding adoption into more and more sectors and the exponential rise in wallet activity, the cryptocurrency is "technically oversold" at present levels.

Analysts debate whether Bitcoin (BTC) might experience further drops similar to those seen in 2013 and 2017, when it plunged 84% and 85%, respectively. Therefore, the $20,000 price threshold remains crucial. The price of Bitcoin might plummet by close to $10,000 if it undergoes a similar decline this time.

Ian Harnett, co-founder and chief investment officer of Absolute Strategy Research, stated that Bitcoin might drop as low as $13,000, which would represent a nearly 40% drop from its current price.

While Bitcoin prices increased by 90-fold and 20-fold in 2013 and 2017, respectively, prices only increased by 10 times in 2021. According to CoinMarketCap, the lead cryptocurrency was recently trading at $20,909, up 2.21% over the previous day.

3. Dubai Regulator: Three Arrows Capital Isn’t Registered Here

The Dubai Financial Services Authority says the embattled crypto fund has not set up shop in the emirate, despite stated plans.

In the prelapsarian days of April, Three Arrows Capital’s Su Zhu said his firm’s headquarters was moving to Dubai to launch a new $5 billion fund, citing a friendlier regulatory environment than Singapore.
But a lot has happened since, and there’s no evidence to suggest that the embattled crypto fund has made good on its claim that it's moving away from the Lion City.

We can confirm that Three Arrows Capital is not a DFSA authorized firm and is not regulated by the DFSA,” a spokesperson for the DFSA (Dubai Financial Services Authority) told CoinDesk via email.
In Singapore, Three Arrows Capital is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. A company looking to replicate its Singaporean structure in Dubai would be expected to seek registration as a fund with the DFSA.
In order to conduct financial services in or from the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) – a purpose-built financial free trade zone – entities need to seek authorization from the DFSA, according to the regulator’s website.

 *Dubai Attracts Crypto.com, Bybit as Friendly Rules Bear Fruit* 

In the last few years, the DIFC has wooed crypto companies to the emirate with the promise of innovative regulation.
Three Arrows hasn’t registered an entity outside of the DIFC either. A search of Dubai’s national economic register shows no company matching the description of Three Arrows Capital registered in the emirate — although there is an air-conditioning company with the name “Three Arrows” operating.

4. Russian parliament considers bill to fine illicit crypto issuance or exchange

Russian authorities are accelerating cryptocurrency regulation with the introduction of a new bill seeking to govern the issuance of cryptocurrencies. 

The bill put forward on June 22 under consideration before the country’s parliament spells out that individuals or companies involved in the illegal issuance of cryptocurrencies will be subject to significant fines. 

According to the bill by Anatoly Aksakov, if adopted into law, individuals will be fined up to 5,000 Russian rubles ( $90) and 30,000 ($550) for officials. Legal entities will part with a fine of between 700,000 and 1,000,000 rubles. 

Additionally, a business that violates the crypto issuance guidelines will pay 700,000 rubles ($13,000) in fines. The proposed law also offers administrative liability for persons illegally carrying out activities in the field of digital rights.

Notably, Aksakov has sponsored other crypto-related bills aligned to have a single regulatory framework. For instance, the high-ranking lawmaker is behind other legislation that seeks to ban the use of cryptocurrencies in payments. However, most entities are supporting the idea of having the ruble as the only legal tender.

This comes as various financial institutions in the country debate on the right crypto regulation approach in the wake of mounting sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Amid the debate on crypto regulations, it was speculated that most Russians were embracing digital assets as a means of coping with economic sanctions. However, as reported by Finbold, this was not the case. 

 
In recent months, there has been a clash between state agencies on the right crypto regulation outlook after President Vladimir Putin called for collaboration. Interestingly, the Central Bank of Russia has suggested a blanket ban on crypto-related activities, while the Ministry of Finance has been pushing for legislation under strict rules. 

Elsewhere, the parliament is also expected to review the “On Digital Currency,” bill by the ministry, which is supposed to regulate crypto-related matters.

5. India Clarifies Crypto Taxes, as Trading Volumes Crater

CoinSwitch CEO Ashish Singhal told Blockworks prohibitive taxes are likely to unsettle investors

India’s central tax authority has issued clarifications around its decision to execute a 1% tax deducted at source (TDS), on top of a 30% tax on cryptocurrency profits. 

With around 20 million people owning cryptocurrency in the country, there has been immense uncertainty around how virtual assets will be treated under taxation rules. The Central Board of Direct Taxes is now attempting to clear away this confusion.

According to a notice issued Wednesday, new rules state that exchanges will have to deduct taxes from cryptocurrency buyers during each transaction above certain thresholds. This tax will have to be paid to the central government within 30 days from when the deduction was made. The 1% TDS comes into effect on July 1, 2022.

When the decision to impose a 1% TDS on cryptocurrencies was first announced, the crypto industry pushed for a reduction in the range of 0.01% to 0.05% on fear of the impact on retail traders.

According to CoinSwitch CEO Ashish Singhal, cryptocurrencies should be taxed at par with equity markets. He believes prohibitive taxes are likely to unsettle investors and expose them to possible losses.

TDS is to provide a tax trail. A lower TDS can do so without driving users out of KYC-compliant platforms,” Singhal told Blockworks.

“The crypto market is driven by high-frequency traders, like intraday traders in equity markets. These traders operate on extremely thin margins, and locking up their capital with high TDS will restrict their ability to operate,” Singhal added.

Nicola Massella, head of Legal at STORM Partners, agreed that the 1% TDS may be a competitive disadvantage for local actors. 

India’s latest tax rules come as both equities and cryptocurrencies remain on shaky ground after weeks of weakness. Bellwether asset bitcoin is up 3% in the last week, but is down 55% so far this year, according to data from Blockworks Research. It last traded around $21,200.

India’s controversial 30% tax on cryptocurrency profits came into effect in April. The initial announcement of this tax on capital gains hurt trading volumes on platforms in the country by as much as 70%.

It isn’t clear whether the provisions laid out by the authority apply to foreign crypto exchanges. The CBDT is expected to issue a separate set of Frequently Asked Questions to clear up any other confusion related to the tax regime.

6. US Congressional hearing on digital asset regulation focuses on disclosure

An agriculture subcommittee heard a CFTC official, a law professor, a Chainalysis cofounder and Charles Hoskinson air their views on regulation and adjacent topics.

Disclosure was an important theme at a United States House of Representatives hearing on digital asset regulation Thursday. Although chair of the House Agriculture Committee Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy and Credit Sean Maloney specified that it would focus on gaps in the oversight and regulation of derivatives and underlying spot markets, the discussion ranged widely. 

The Agriculture Committee oversees the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates financial markets along with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Chainalysis co-founder and chief strategy officer Jonathan Levin said in his testimony that cryptocurrency’s transparency provides unique insights into the markets, including their risks. The blockchain can unlock information about the entire network behind illicit activities.

Georgetown University law professor Christopher Brummer pointed out that disclosure law assumes issuers have access to information consumers do not have, while blockchain is transparent but hard to understand.

Disclosures should be read, not just filed,” Brummer said several times in reference to consumer protection, adding that increasing the complexity of disclosure could create vulnerabilities for consumers.

Input Output Global CEO Charles Hoskinson spoke about “mindset” and emphasized the importance of principles and the need to strive for “efficacy over strictness” in the rapidly evolving and global market. He later expressed the opinion that no regulators are doing a good job with Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) safeguards at the moment, however.

As the participants moved on to more specific questions, CFTC market oversight division director Vincent McGonagle said his agency has the expertise to oversee the cash market for crypto. That market is now regulated by state money transmission laws, but there are multiple proposals to grant the CFC authority over it. The state laws have a different purpose from the CFTC’s concerns, McGonagle said, and centralized clearing adds a layer of consumer protection.

 *US congress research agency weighs in on UST crash, notes gaps in regulation*

Digital assets are defined as commodities, McGonagle said, but the SEC can determine when they are securities. Determining the point at which securities are fully decentralized and no longer subject to SEC oversight is a “tangled web,” McGonagle continued, and there is no legal mechanism for transferring those commodities back to CFTC oversight.

7. Just In: SEC Chair Recommends “One Crypto Rule Book,” Here’s Why:

SEC Chair Gary Gensler on Friday said financial agencies in the U.S. should share “one” crypto rule book in order to prevent loopholes due to fragmented regulatory structure. The recommendation comes after the bipartisan crypto bill proposes the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for crypto oversight.

In fact, Gary Gensler is in discussion with his counterparts at the CFTC to ensure satisfactory protection and transparency regarding the trading of digital assets. Moreover, SEC Chair Gensler claims that most digital tokens are securities.

 *SEC Chair Urges Shared Crypto Oversight With the CFTC*

The SEC and the CFTC have never worked in tandem earlier. The SEC oversees the securities industry and the CFTC regulates the derivatives markets. However, cryptocurrencies led both agencies to have oversight of the crypto market.

As a result, the regulatory burden has increased significantly on the crypto market, along with rising penalties. As per data by crypto analytics company Elliptic, U.S. regulators have collected $3.35 billion in crypto enforcement actions since 2008

SEC Chair Gary Gensler has always called for a strict crypto oversight and registration of crypto platforms with the SEC. Moreover, he was working on a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC in which the SEC has jurisdiction over platforms listing tokens that are deemed securities.

However, the bipartisan crypto bill by US senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Cynthia Lummis proposed most digital assets resemble commodities rather than securities. It put crypto oversight in the hands of the CFTC, potentially reducing the SEC’s influence over digital assets.

In January, CFTC’s Chair Rostin Behnam stated that digital tokens qualify as commodities, including Bitcoin and Ether. The CFTC is better aligned to manage the crypto market.

 *Gary Gensler Believes the Crypto Bill Undermines Protections* 

As the crypto market reels under massive pressure, the SEC Chair warned that the crypto bill undermines market protections. He believes most cryptocurrencies are unregistered securities that harm investor protection.

The SEC has already filed lawsuits against crypto companies, including Ripple. Moreover, the SEC is investigating Binance’s initial coin offering of BNB over a violation of securities law.

8. Horizon Ethereum Bridge Hacked For $100M, Harmony Drops 10%

The Horizon Ethereum bridge got attacked by hackers and they managed to steal $100 million in cryptocurrency. The exploit was revealed in a tweet during the early hours of Friday morning. The team revealed that it had identified a theft happening this morning amounting to about $100 million. It went on to add the addresses of the culprit were identified and that the Harmony team is working with authoriteis to retrieve the stolen funds.

9. Namibian University Set to Offer Master’s Degree in Blockchain Technology in 2024

A Namibian university is set to offer a master’s degree in blockchain technology starting in the year 2024, a senior employee with the institution has said. The university is already “infusing” blockchain technology-based content into its level 8 programs.