News Updates September 28, 2022
1. Top Crypto Analyst Sees Silver Lining for Bitcoin, Says October Historically Bullish for BTC.
A popular crypto strategist says that based on historical price action, Bitcoin (BTC) could be setting up for a bullish October.
The pseudonymous analyst known as Kaleo tells his 535,900 Twitter followers that a much-needed relief rally may be in sight for BTC.
“Tracking price action over the past decade, Sept. has far and away been the worst performing month for BTC – closing positive only 20% of the time. Silver lining – Oct. has been one of the best months for BTC – positive 78% of the time w/ a median gain of 28%.”
According to Kaleo, September has always been a historically bearish month for Bitcoin but it tends to open the door for healthy rallies in October.
“Considering Bitcoin’s rapid adoption and high growth over the past decade, it makes quite a bit of sense that October has been the highest median return % out of any month considering it follows the worst performing month for the argument of mean reversion if nothing else.”
A popular crypto strategist says that based on historical price action, Bitcoin (BTC) could be setting up for a bullish October.
The pseudonymous analyst known as Kaleo tells his 535,900 Twitter followers that a much-needed relief rally may be in sight for BTC.
“Tracking price action over the past decade, Sept. has far and away been the worst performing month for BTC – closing positive only 20% of the time. Silver lining – Oct. has been one of the best months for BTC – positive 78% of the time w/ a median gain of 28%.”
Source: Kaleo/Twitter
According to Kaleo, September has always been a historically bearish month for Bitcoin but it tends to open the door for healthy rallies in October.
“Considering Bitcoin’s rapid adoption and high growth over the past decade, it makes quite a bit of sense that October has been the highest median return % out of any month considering it follows the worst performing month for the argument of mean reversion if nothing else.”
Source: Kaleo/Twitter
The crypto strategist also highlights that Bitcoin has lost around 75% of its value from the all-time high (ATH) of $69,000, which it hit in November last year.
“There are plenty of advocates for lower prices still, which honestly isn’t insane considering BTC’s average decline from ATH over the past several cycles. ATH to bear market low each of the previous cycles:
2011 – 2012: -94%
2013 – 2015: -86%
2017 – 2019: -84%
2021 – now: -75%.”
Based on BTC’s historical performance, Kaleo warns that a move to lower levels is within the realm of possibility. However, he notes that Bitcoin’s market cap is much higher now compared to previous bear markets, suggesting that an over 80% drawdown is unlikely.
“While it’s more difficult for an asset that’s grown hundreds of billions of dollars to experience the same level of volatility it did at lower market caps, a wick lower from here would be anything but unprecedented.”
The crypto strategist concludes his thread by highlighting that past performance does not guarantee future results.
“It might be worth it to step away from the charts for a few days and come back to look for solid entries at the beginning of October. Hopefully the trend holds up, and we see a bit of relief sometime soon.”
2. Bank of France Governor Calls For Swift Global Crypto Regulation.
Bank of France governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau has called on all countries to keep up with the crypto regulation process not minding the crypto winter.
He pointed out that countries that lag in creating a crypto regulatory framework, would eventually create access to arbitrage risks. Once spotted, crypto players would exploit such territories.
“The so-called ‘crypto-winter’ is no reason for complacency or inaction,” the governor said.
Villeroy who is also a member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council noted that many jurisdictions had not adopted any form of regulation for digital assets. Bitcoin (BTC), which is the most widely recognized digital asset and the largest by market trading volume, is yet to be regulated in certain territories.
Europe has put great effort into developing a digital assets regulatory framework. The most important European Union crypto regulation guidelines known as Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) have been undergoing a series of touch ups and amendments. Accordingly, MiCA is finally in its last phase before it gets published in March 2023.
3. EU Set to Ban Russian Crypto Payments After ‘Sham’ Referenda
Russians could be restricted from making any payments to EU crypto wallets following the imposition of limits in April.
The European Union will tighten restrictions on Russians’ crypto investments within the bloc as it seeks to respond to “sham” independence votes being held in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine, CoinDesk has been told.
A previous cap of crypto holdings of 10,000 euros ($9,600) will be scrapped, a person briefed on the sanctions package told CoinDesk, potentially meaning Russians won’t be able to hold any assets in EU crypto wallets.
In April, the EU announced that it would restrict Russian payments to European crypto wallets to 10,000 euros as it sought to stop digital assets being used to bypass restrictions on large bank transfers. The new measures mean that figure could now be reduced to zero.
4. CFTC's Pham calls for new office focused on retail traders, with eye to crypto protections.
Commodity Futures Trading Commissioner Caroline Pham has proposed a new 'Office of Retail Advocate' for the CFTC, one that could factor into a broader push by leadership at the agency to more directly oversee crypto markets.
"If there are areas of the financial system that are apparently outside and unregulated, such as a 'shadow' crypto financial system — shadow banking 3.0 — then the appropriate response is to bring them inside," said Pham, in a speech given at an event hosted by blockchain project Corda in London yesterday, the latest stop in a digital asset outreach tour. "And while Congress continues its work on developing legislation, there may be other ways as well to make sure the CFTC and others are exercising the full extent of their existing market oversight, supervisory, and enforcement authorities."
Pham cited in particular, "the crypto crash, risk management failures, and substantial retail losses," as reason to launch a new office focused on retail investors at the agency. The CFTC commissioner also pointed to CFTC enforcements and current retail investor educational efforts as efforts to expand upon with the office.
5. India's Enforcement Directorate Freezes $1.5M in Bitcoin in Gaming App E-Nuggets Case
The agency has been conducting several search operations related to an "illegal loan apps" scam with China links .
Khan was transferring some of the money overseas via a cryptocurrency exchange, according to the ED. One dummy account was supposedly opened on Indian exchange WazirX, from where crypto purchased was then transferred to an account in Binance, which is the world's largest crypto exchange. A balance of as many as 77.6 bitcoins worth roughly $1.5 million has been frozen in that Binance account.
“The transparent nature of blockchain means that the transactions are publicly available and traceable – which is not an option with traditional financial transactions," Binance said in a statement to CoinDesk. "Every day, Binance assists a large number of law enforcement investigations to detect criminal activities. We can confirm that Binance froze the funds at the request of the Enforcement Directorate. It’s our position to cooperate fully and collaboratively with all legally valid requests and inquiries."
Khan's whereabouts and contact information weren't immediately known.
WazirX didn't immediately return requests for comment.
India's ED has been conducting several search operations related to an "illegal loan apps" scam with China links. It has investigated at least 10 crypto exchanges.
6. Bank of England asserts blockchain adoption across all markets is too complex.
Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, said on Wednesday, September 28, that using the blockchain technology that is the foundation of crypto assets to enable rapid trading and settlement across all financial markets is not desired given the issues that it would entail.
According to Cunliffe, it is important to make sure that trading and settlement innovations are as robust as the current system is in the eyes of regulators, Reuters reported on September 28.
He added that cash and securities on hand at the moment of a trade’s execution are necessary for instant settlement. It was unclear how blockchain-based platforms and current technology would operate together.
Cunliffe told a conference held by financial industry body AFME:
“There is simply no time to identify or rectify errors before they are actioned. In short, we may not want wholly instantaneous trading and settlement in all markets.”
7. Bank of Ghana to foster financial inclusion through CBDC project
Kwame Oppong, an executive at Ghana’s central bank, told Cointelegraph that a CBDC could give their citizens the opportunity to use a "decent form of payment.
As more countries make progress in terms of developing and implementing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), Ghana’s central bank aims to keep up and complete its research on CBDCs with the goal of financial inclusion, according to Kwame Oppong, the head of fintech and innovation at the Bank of Ghana.
8. Brazilian Police Raid 15 Companies as Part of Crypto ‘Pyramid Scheme’ Bust.
Federal police officers in Brazil have performed search-and-seize raids at 15 firms in two states in a bid to break up a suspected crypto-themed “pyramid scheme.”
Per Agência Brasil, the country’s national public news agency, officers swooped on 15 unnamed companies based in the states of Santa Catarina and São Paulo on September 27.
The Federal Police Force (known locally as the PF) claimed that the firms were active “between 2017 and 2020” and said that the companies had “attracted clients” to make “investments in cryptoassets and other businesses” – promising these clients “profits beyond those that exist on the market.”
Like many crypto scams, the pyramid appears to have made promises about “guaranteed” monthly gains.
The PF said that its agents seized a variety of items during their searches, including expensive watches, laptop computers, passports, jewelry, cell phones, and firearms.
Officers said that “more than 400 people” may have lost their money in the alleged scam – and that the masterminds raked in some $5.6 million from their alleged victims.
