News updates April 29, 2022

1. Bitcoin Price falls below 40k, time to Buy BTC?

Bitcoin price was seen consolidating around $40,000 for quite a while now. Instead of continuing an uptrend, BTC broke its uptrend only to hover around its psychological price. Many investors started to feel wary about investing in cryptocurrencies. However, the current price-action of Bitcoin offers the perfect day trading opportunity. Not only can traders make good returns on highly predictable trends, but the stock market isn’t doing any better. In this article, we look into the opportunity of buying Bitcoin at a price below $40,000, and try to assess where prices are headed towards. So sit back, enjoy, and thank us later.

 *Bitcoin price is Consolidating – Good or Bad?* 

Consolidations in the trading space usually mean an oscillation of a pattern in a well-defined trading level. This alone should instigate day traders to be more active in the market. If you want to make good money while trading Bitcoin, you can simply buy at support areas and sell at resistance areas. Now the tricky part is identifying those areas!

We at CryptoTicker love charting! In figure 1 below, we plotted many important areas to consider. But to sum up, here are the most important levels for Bitcoin:

$36,400
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000

 *Bitcoin Price Prediction – Will Bitcoin go up again soon?* 

In theory, and from a fundamental perspective, there is a lot of positive news in the crypto sphere. This alone should push cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin mostly upwards. The current lag effect is due to either profit-taking from day traders, or weak buying power from investors sitting on the sidelines.

Looking at figure 2 below, we can definitely spot an uptrend that started since reaching the low price of $33,000 earlier this year. On the other hand, the current Bitcoin price might have broken the uptrend line. This usually signals an upcoming further drop towards the next support of $36,400.

However, the current case might be a mere fakeout, where prices pick up their pace and continue towards the next important area: the $45,000.

 *Bitcoin Price Prediction: Should you Buy Bitcoin Today?* 

In any case, Bitcoin prices are expected to go higher soon. It would be a wise choice to wait for further confirmations regarding Bitcoin’s breakout or fakeout. The latter is confirmed if prices pick up again above $40,000. If this happens, then you can definitely place a buy order at current prices, with a stop-loss of around $37,800.

Recently, Goldman Sachs announced that they are considering tokenizing real assets, and already started offering Bitcoin-backed loans. This, along other positive news in the market should definitely have an impact on prices soon. We’ll follow up on Bitcoin’s price in another article and assess accordingly how to proceed.

2. Bitcoin Key Indicators Suggest Strengthening Case For Decent Increase:

Bitcoin is showing positive signs above $39,500 against the US Dollar. BTC must clear $40,250 to continue higher in the near term.

* Bitcoin started another recovery wave and climbed above the $39,800 level.

* The price is now trading above $39,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

* There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $39,580 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).

* The pair must clear the $40,250 resistance to continue higher in the near term.

 *Bitcoin Price Eyes Upside Break*

Bitcoin price started a fresh recovery wave above the $38,500 resistance level. BTC cleared the $39,250 and $39,500 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the main decline from the $40,774 swing high to $37,670 swing low. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near $39,580 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin price is now trading above $39,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It even spiked above the $40,000 resistance.

However, there was no close above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the main decline from the $40,774 swing high to $37,670 swing low. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the $40,000 level. The next key resistance could be near the $40,250 zone.

A close above the $40,250 level could open the doors for a decent increase. In the stated case, the price could even surpass the $40,800 resistance. The next major resistance may perhaps be near the $41,250 zone.

 *Fresh Decline in BTC?*

If bitcoin fails to clear the $40,250 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. An immediate support on the downside is near the $39,750 level.

The next major support is seen near the trend line and $39,580. A clear break below the trend line support and $39,500 could open the doors for a fresh decline. In this case, the price may perhaps decline towards the $39,000 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the $38,400 support.

3. Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: The long squeeze before a run-up to $45,500 is still in play:

* Bitcoin price is likely to slide below $37,699 to collect liquidity before heading higher.

* Investors can expect an 11% upswing to $42,000 for the big crypto after a liquidity run.

* A daily candlestick close below $35,000 will invalidate the bullish thesis.

Bitcoin price has prematurely triggered a minor run-up, leaving its downside objective unfulfilled. Therefore, investors can expect BTC to slide lower and collect liquidity below a significant level before triggering a full-blown impulse move.

 *Bitcoin price needs to complete its downside objective*

Bitcoin price is traversing an ascending parallel channel, obtained by connecting the three higher lows and two higher highs formed since January 24. The last two retests of the lower trend line of the pattern have led to a bounce to the upper limit.

The third retest is unlike the ones that came before it due to its slow downtrend. Moreover, the downtrend that pushed Bitcoin price from $48,189 to $37,702, failed to push it below the equal lows formed around $37,699.

Therefore, investors should expect a move to the downside that collects liquidity before it heads higher. A sweep below $37,699 will be the trigger that pushes BTC up by 11% to retest the $42,125 to $43,766 supply zone. Interestingly, this level also coincides with the 200-day SMA, making it a tough barrier and a place where the local top could form.

Only a daily candlestick close above $43,766 will allow the Bitcoin price to navigate to $45,510. This move would constitute a 20% ascent. 

Supporting this short-term downswing in Bitcoin price is the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator. This indicator is used to measure the average profit/loss of investors that purchased BTC over the past month.
Any value of -10% to -15% is termed as an “opportunity zone” since short-term holders are at a loss and are less likely to sell, while long-term holders accumulate. Hence, a local bottom is often formed around these levels. 

For BTC, however, the index is hovering around -7.1%, which is just above the first local bottom at -11% This downswing is often where the local bottom is formed, but there are a few times when BTC has dropped to -18.7%. So, there is a good chance for Bitcoin price to drop to these levels again, which aligns well with the outlook described from a technical perspective.

While this minor downswing might seem bearish, the whales holding between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have increased from 2044 to 2,193 since February 24. This sudden uptick in the number of wallets holding massive amounts of BTC serves as a proxy for these whales’ investments, who are expecting an uptick in Bitcoin price.

Therefore, the long-term outlook for BTC remains mildly bullish, which aligns with the technical outlook’s target of $45,510.

Regardless of the short-term downswing expectation, the big crypto is positioned for a trend reversal. However, if the bears take control and push BTC lower, leading to a daily candlestick close below the $34,752 significant level, it will create a lower low and invalidate the bullish thesis. 

In this situation, BTC market makers might tug BTC to nosedive and collect the sell-stops present below the $30,000 level.

4. Russian security agency wants exchanges to share data with crime investigators:

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) and the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) have submitted their review notes on the forthcoming “crypto bill,” developed by the country’s Finance Ministry. Law enforcement agencies push for requiring crypto firms to share transaction data with investigators and for clarifying the terms on which digital assets can be seized. 

On Thursday, local newspaper Izvestia reported on the content of the review notes that the security service and police ministry filed to the Finance Ministry’s draft of the bill “On digital currency.” Some of the propositions were reportedly accepted by the ministry, while others were turned down.

The Finance Ministry endorsed the FSB’s suggestion to oblige crypto service providers to share information not only with courts but also with crime investigators. It also agreed that it was necessary to clarify a set of requirements for storing crypto transaction data.

Another remark came from the MVD, which noted that the bill lacks procedural details on crypto assets’ seizure and storage. The Federal Tax Service (FNS) also contributed a proposition to tighten the requirements for non-licensed exchanges and wallets — advertising such services would be illegal. These recommendations were accepted by the Finance Ministry as well.

What the ministry did not accept was the FSB’s proposal of mandatory transaction of any mined currencies to licensed exchanges and the application of Anti-Money Laundering legislation to mining.

 *Russia to include crypto into its tax code: Here is what the rules might look like*

The Finance Ministry called the “excessively detailed and tight regulation” unfeasible at this point, as it might scare away crypto users and investors. The FNS’ idea to disallow the banks to make crypto transactions with non-licensed entities merited a further discussion, the ministry commented.

According to the head of the State Duma’s Financial Market Committee, Anatoly Aksakov, the final draft of the “crypto bill” is expected to be introduced to the parliament in May.

Last week, Reuters reported that the regional head of crypto exchange Binance agreed to supply Russia’s financial intelligence unit, Rosfinmonitoring, with customer data potentially related to donations to the opposition activist Alexei Navalny. The company called this allegation “categorically false” in its blog post.

5. South Korean Crypto Exchange CEO Arrested for Spying for North Korea:

A 38-year-old South Korean executive at the helm of an unnamed cryptocurrency exchange has been indicted for spying for North Korea, according to a Thursday report published by Yonhap News Agency.

The executive, whose last name is Lee, allegedly colluded with a North Korean spy last July to help him get access to sensitive military information in exchange for 700 million Korean won ($549,000).

Lee paid 48 million won ($37,643) worth of crypto to a corrupt military captain in order to obtain access to a confidential military network.

The exchange head gave the officer a wrist watch with a hidden camera in it in order to gather intelligence at his military unit. Both of them have been charged with violating a South Korean security law, which was adopted back in 1948 to counter the threat posed by the hostile northern neighbor. The captain also separately interacted with the North Korean spy.

 *North Korea Was Behind Axie Infinity’s $625 Million Ronin Bridge Hack*

Under the law, South Koreans are barred from visiting North Korea or meeting with the citizens of the pariah state without government approval. It also prohibits praising North Korea or disseminating its propaganda. In 2012, a South Korean photographer was indicted for retweeting pro-Kim Jong Il messages, but he was later acquitted.

The North Korean spy is still on the loose, according to the report. According to police, he had known the businessman for at least six years after they met each other in an online cryptocurrency community.

In early February, several executives of South Korean crypto exchange V Global ended up behind bars after committing fraud. Its former CEO, Lee Byung-gul, was sentenced to 22 years behind bars.

6. UK Cyber Cops Gladly Join Crypto Firms for Double-Triple Pay: Bloomberg.

Bloomberg has reported that in the U.K., skilled cybercrime officers are leaving the police force to work for crypto companies, mostly exchanges, where they can earn double or even triple the salary. 

According to the National Police Chiefs' Council (NPCC), a body that represents all law enforcement departments in the country, experienced cybercrime officers are leaving a lot faster than members of the regular police force, and they are heading to cryptocurrency companies that are headhunting cybercrime experts.

The rate at which the police is losing them is 3-4 times higher than that of regular officer turnover.

So far, slightly over a dozen experts from the police (or with a background in law enforcement) are working for crypto companies, per NPCC. Over the coming 12-18 months, this figure is expected to see a substantial rise.

7. US Labor Department Has ‘Grave Concerns’ About Fidelity’s Plan for Bitcoin in 401(k) Retirement Plans, Wall Street Journal Reports.

The Labor Department is scheduled to meet with Fidelity to express concerns. Fidelity Investment’s plan to allow for the inclusion of bitcoin in its operated 401(k) accounts is facing headwinds from the U.S. Labor Department, which regulates company-sponsored retirement plans, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal.
“We have grave concerns with what Fidelity has done,” Ali Khawar, acting assistant secretary of the Employee Benefits Security Administration, told the Wall Street Journal.
Khawar highlighted the speculative nature of cryptocurrency and the hype around the fear of missing out as reasons his department is concerned about the move.

8. Germany Gets Friendlier For Crypto, Eases Staking And Lending Laws.

Germany has taken another step towards becoming a crypto-friendly country. The German Parliament in a roundtable on crypto taxation has decided to not extend the time period to 10-year for tax-free selling of crypto gains from staking and lending. Thus, Germans can now sell their crypto assets tax-free after 1 year of staking and lending.

The Federal Ministry of Finance in Germany has also announced the removal of the draft law that required a minimum 10-year period for tax-free selling of crypto gains from staking and lending. A new crypto-friendly draft law will be in place soon.

9. Singaporean investors’ appetite for crypto is key to mainstream adoption

As Singapore continues to play an active role in boosting crypto adoption across the Asia-Pacific region, the country’s first licensed crypto exchange Independent Reserve conducted a retail-focused survey to better understand the underlying potential of the regulated market.

Independent Reserve’s survey — conducted across all age groups and genders of the Singapore population — revealed a strong affinity for various financial opportunities brought forward by decentralized finance (DeFi) and other investment opportunities.

As explained by Raks Sondhi, managing director of Independent Reserve Singapore, the country’s rapid crypto adoption is driven by high level of trust and confidence in the future of crypto.